The Difficulty in Return Forecasting: A Probabilistic Approach

Savvy investors understand having working knowledge of return forecasting is key when constructing portfolios. Still a hot and heavily debated topic is means variance modeling, which can be the most difficult to predict. Research has gotten better and there are new ideas for measuring returns. Managing Director of Chasefield Capital Harold Pine, authored the article, “The Difficulty in Return Forecasting, A Probabilistic Approach,” published in M&A Journal, an online magazine for leading law firms, investment banks, corporations and pension funds.

“We do not make the distinction between private equity and the M&A world, as the two are very connected from a valuation and return perspective,” Mr. Pine said. He suggests finding a useful tool that reasonably reflects the behaviors of the return and warns, taking a single deterministic approach can be potentially misleading. Mr. Pine details how the use of multiple platforms and tools will yield better investment decision when it comes to buying or selling.

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